Trail Status Live — SE Michigan MTB

What is this?

Weather-based trail condition predictions for mountain bikers in SE Michigan. Every trail is assessed against current weather data — recent rain, temperature, and the forecast ahead — so you can decide whether it's worth the drive before you leave the house.

Conditions update every 30 minutes. If a trail has a known closure or special situation, the local coordinator can post a manual override that takes precedence over the weather model.

Reading the conditions

How is the ground?

Rideable Dry enough to ride. Soil has had enough time to drain and firm up after the last rain.

Caution Rideable but soft in places. Consider skipping if you're on a heavy bike or the trail is clay-heavy.

Too Wet Recent rain and not enough drying time. Riding now causes ruts and lasting damage — please wait.

And the mark beside it?

Rain Rain is falling or due soon. The pill still tells you how the dirt is underneath it — firm ground with a shower coming is a very different day from a soaked trail in the same rain.

Go now A dry window that's closing — rain later today. Ride earlier rather than later.

Thaw The ground is thawing after weeks of deep frost. Meltwater can't drain through the still-frozen layer below — the worst weeks of the year to ride, even when the surface looks dry.

Or is it shut?

Closed A steward has closed it — seasonal, maintenance, rain damage or a known trail issue. The whole row dims, because it isn't a condition you can judge for yourself. Tap the trail for details.

RainSense™

Most weather apps tell you there's a 90% chance of rain — but not whether that's 0.05" or an inch. RainSense™ always shows the actual amount in inches. Colour encodes probability: light blue means unlikely, dark blue means near-certain.

10% chance 50% 90%+ chance

0.05"

25% chance · trace

0.8"

25% chance · significant

0.05"

90% chance · trace

0.8"

90% chance · significant

A 90% chance of 0.05" is a dark blue near-nothing — annoying but not trip-cancelling. A 25% chance of 0.8" is a light blue tall bar — low odds, but worth watching.

Winter & spring riding

From late fall through spring, frozen ground — not rain — drives conditions. The model tracks ground temperature below the surface and adds these cues:

🧊 Freeze-thaw day The surface froze overnight and will thaw past mid-morning. Frozen dirt at dawn is the best riding of the season — the same trail at noon is greasy and easy to damage. Ride early or wait for refreeze.

❄️ Frozen solid The ground has been below freezing for days — firm, fast riding while the cold holds. With a few inches of snow on top it becomes fat-bike territory instead.

❄️ Refrozen A cold snap has paused the spring thaw. Firm for now, but ruts left in the mud are frozen solid — and the thaw will resume.

✅ Ground thawed The spring thaw is over: frost is out of the ground, water drains again, and the normal rain-based model takes back over.

Why the spring thaw matters: after weeks of deep frost the ground thaws from the top down. Melting snow and rain sit trapped above the still-frozen layer, so trails stay saturated for weeks — even through a sunny, dry stretch. It's the same reason Michigan puts weight restrictions on roads every spring. Trails typically need about a week of warm ground (and the snow gone) before they firm up; the model waits for exactly that.

How to use this site

1

Trail List — Trails are sorted by distance from your location. Green is good to go. Anything else, check the details.

2

Tap a trail — Opens the Today page: current status, temperature, hours since last rain, and a 12-hour window forecast.

3

Weekly Planner — From any Today page, tap Weekly Plan to see a 7-day forecast and the best riding window ahead.

4

Map — See all trails at a glance. Marker color matches current status. Tap any marker for a quick summary.

5

Style — The same trails arranged by how they feel — flowy vs. twisty, open vs. rocky — using local rider Mike Rosinski's map. Dot colour is today's status; hover or tap for details.

6

Rate it after you ride — Every Today page has a quick Drier / About right / Wetter button at the bottom. One tap, and it directly improves how the drying model is tuned for that trail.

Weather sources

Weather data comes from three sources: Open-Meteo for forecasts and baseline rainfall, NWS airport station observations for timing, and NOAA MRMS radar data (via Iowa Environmental Mesonet) for accurate rain amounts — particularly for localised summer storms that gridded models and airport stations can miss. When radar data corrects the rain figure, a note appears on the trail's detail page.

Drying models are tuned to each trail's soil type and drainage. Official NWS weather alerts for SE Michigan are shown automatically when active.

About this project

Who builds it and why, how to help tune the model, how to install it on your phone, and the QR code for sharing or printing.

About Trail Status Live →